Foxorox AI Market Forecast – 2025-12-01

AI-generated analysis combining predictive modeling and recent market context.

Which Banks in Poland Earn the Most on the Deposit–Loan Spread?

Based on full-year 2024 results (as of 2025).

Poland’s banking sector continues to benefit from elevated interest rates. The gap between what banks pay on deposits and what they charge on loans remains historically high — driving strong profit margins.
Last month, inflation in Poland fell to 2.4%, bringing it very close to the official target. With price pressures easing, the Monetary Policy Council will likely face increasing pressure to cut interest rates in the coming quarters.

For the banking sector, this is far from ideal. Elevated interest rates have fueled historically strong net interest margins, making 2024/2025 an exceptionally profitable period for banks. However, this momentum will be difficult to repeat — 2026 will not mirror the financial success of 2025.

A further headwind comes in the form of a new 30% banking tax scheduled for 2026. This will reduce net earnings and, consequently, limit the sector’s capacity to pay dividends, which has been a key attraction for shareholders in recent years.

At the same time, it is uncertain whether banks will be able to compensate through stronger lending activity. Consumer sentiment is weakening, purchasing power is under pressure, and overall economic expectations are cooling — none of which creates fertile ground for robust credit expansion.

So the question practically asks itself:
👉 Are banks still a buy — or is it time to shift capital elsewhere?

This raises two questions:

1. Largest Earners: Net Interest Income (NII)

🏦 PKO Bank Polski generated an estimated PLN 22B in net interest earnings in 2024 — the highest in Poland.

2. Efficiency Ranking: Net Interest Margin (NIM)

🥇 Alior Bank leads here with an estimated 6.0–6.3% NIM, the highest among major banks.

3. Side-by-Side Comparison (2024 Estimates)

Bank NII (PLN million) NIM (%) Rank (NII) Rank (NIM)
PKO BP≈ 22 153≈ 4.8–5.1%🥇Top 3
Santander≈ 13 900≈ 5.2–5.3%🥈Top 2
Pekao≈ 12 800≈ 4.4–4.7%🥉Mid
mBank≈ 9 600≈ 3.8–4.2%4thLow
ING≈ 8 700≈ 3.5–3.6%5thDefensive
Millennium≈ 5 530≈ 4.0%6thMid
Alior≈ 5 184≈ 6.0–6.3%7th🥇 Highest

Values rounded and based on publicly available FY2024 data and estimates valid as of late 2025.

In short: PKO BP leads in size. Alior leads in efficiency.

📈 Live Market View — TradingView Widgets + Valuation Metrics

Below is the current real-time market sentiment for each major Polish banking stock, along with basic valuation ratios (P/E, P/BV).

Bank Chart P/E P/BV
PKO Bank Polski
9.3 1.8
Santander Bank Polska
9.4 1.57
Bank Pekao
7.6 1.57
mBank
12.4 2.21
ING Bank Śląski
9.78 2.33
Bank Millennium
18.12 2.17
Alior Bank
5.98 1.12
source: Stooq.pl, Bloomberg LP